Impact of the Infection Period Distribution on the Epidemic Spread in a Metapopulation Model

Epidemic models usually rely on the assumption of exponentially distributed sojourn times in infectious states. This is sometimes an acceptable approximation, but it is generally not realistic and it may influence the epidemic dynamics as it has already been shown in one population. Here, we explore the consequences of choosing constant or gamma-distributed infectious periods in a metapopulation context. For two coupled populations, we show that the probability of generating no secondary infections is the largest for most parameter values if the infectious period follows an exponential distribution, and we identify special cases where, inversely, the infection is more prone to extinction in early phases for constant infection durations. The impact of the infection duration distribution on the epidemic dynamics of many connected populations is studied by simulation and sensitivity analysis, taking into account the potential interactions with other factors. The analysis based on the average nonextinct epidemic trajectories shows that their sensitivity to the assumption on the infectious period distribution mostly depends on , the mean infection duration and the network structure. This study shows that the effect of assuming exponential distribution for infection periods instead of more realistic distributions varies with respect to the output of interest and to other factors. Ultimately it highlights the risk of misleading recommendations based on modelling results when models including exponential infection durations are used for practical purposes

Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

Epidemiological models enable to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and to assess ex-ante control strategies. For Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), possible transmission routes have been described, but Map spread in a herd and the relative importance of the routes are currently insufficiently understood to prioritize control measures. We aim to predict early after Map introduction in a dairy cattle herd whether infection is likely to fade out or persist, when no control measures are implemented, using a modelling approach. Both vertical transmission and horizontal transmission via the ingestion of colostrum, milk, or faeces present in the contaminated environment were modelled. Calf-to-calf indirect transmission was possible. Six health states were represented: susceptible, transiently infectious, latently infected, subclinically infected, clinically affected, and resistant. The model was partially validated by comparing the simulated prevalence with field data. Housing facilities and contacts between animals were specifically considered for calves and heifers. After the introduction of one infected animal in a naive herd, fadeout occurred in 66% of the runs. When Map persisted, the prevalence of infected animals increased to 88% in 25 years. The two main transmission routes were via the farm's environment and in utero transmission. Calf-to-calf transmission was minor. Fadeout versus Map persistence could be differentiated with the number of clinically affected animals, which was rarely above one when fadeout occurred. Therefore, early detection of affected animals is crucial in preventing Map persistence in dairy herds

A stochastic model to study rift valley fever persistence with different seasonal patterns of vector abundance: New insights on the endemicity in the tropical island of Mayotte

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic vector-borne disease causing abortion storms in cattle and human epidemics in Africa. Our aim was to evaluate RVF persistence in a seasonal and isolated population and to apply it to Mayotte Island (Indian Ocean), where the virus was still silently circulating four years after its last known introduction in 2007. We proposed a stochastic model to estimate RVF persistence over several years and under four seasonal patterns of vector abundance. Firstly, the model predicted a wide range of virus spread pat- terns, from obligate persistence in a constant or tropical environment (without needing verti- cal transmission or reintroduction) to frequent extinctions in a drier climate. We then identified for each scenario of seasonality the parameters that most influenced prediction variations. Persistence was sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical climate, and to host viraemia duration and vector lifespan in a drier climate. The first epizootic peak was primarily sensitive to viraemia duration and thus likely to be controlled by vaccination, whereas subsequent peaks were sensitive to vector lifespan and biting rate in a tropical cli- mate, and to host birth rate and viraemia duration in arid climates. Finally, we parameterized the model according to Mayotte known environment. Mosquito captures estimated the abundance of eight potential RVF vectors. Review of RVF competence studies on these species allowed adjusting transmission probabilities per bite. Ruminant serological data since 2004 and three new cross-sectional seroprevalence studies are presented. Transmis- sion rates had to be divided by more than five to best fit observed data. Five years after introduction, RVF persisted in more than 10% of the simulations, even under this scenario of low transmission. Hence, active surveillance must be maintained to better understand the risk related to RVF persistence and to prevent new introductions. (Résumé d'auteur

Seasonal and spatial heterogeneities in host and vector abundances impact the spatiotemporal spread of bluetongue

Bluetongue (BT) can cause severe livestock losses and large direct and indirect costs for farmers. To propose targeted control strategies as alternative to massive vaccination, there is a need to better understand how BT virus spread in space and time according to local characteristics of host and vector populations. Our objective was to assess, using a modelling approach, how spatiotemporal heterogeneities in abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors impact the occurrence and amplitude of local and regional BT epidemics. We built a reaction–diffusion model accounting for the seasonality in vector abundance and the active dispersal of vectors. Because of the scale chosen, and movement restrictions imposed during epidemics, host movements and wind-induced passive vector movements were neglected. Four levels of complexity were addressed using a theoretical approach, from a homogeneous to a heterogeneous environment in abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors. These scenarios were illustrated using data on abundance and distribution of hosts and vectors in a real geographical area. We have shown that local epidemics can occur earlier and be larger in scale far from the primary case rather than close to it. Moreover, spatial heterogeneities in hosts and vectors delay the epidemic peak and decrease the infection prevalence. The results obtained on a real area confirmed those obtained on a theoretical domain. Although developed to represent BTV spatiotemporal spread, our model can be used to study other vector-borne diseases of animals with a local to regional spread by vector diffusion

Review: Towards the agroecological management of ruminants, pigs and poultry through the development of sustainable breeding programmes. II. Breeding strategies

Agroecology uses ecological processes and local resources rather than chemical inputs to develop productive and resilient livestock and crop production systems. In this context, breeding innovations are necessary to obtain animals that are both productive and adapted to a broad range of local contexts and diversity of systems. Breeding strategies to promote agroecological systems are similar for different animal species. However, current practices differ regarding the breeding of ruminants, pigs and poultry. Ruminant breeding is still an open system where farmers continue to choose their own breeds and strategies. Conversely, pig and poultry breeding is more or less the exclusive domain of international breeding companies which supply farmers with hybrid animals. Innovations in breeding strategies must therefore be adapted to the different species. In developed countries, reorienting current breeding programmes seems to be more effective than developing programmes dedicated to agroecological systems that will struggle to be really effective because of the small size of the populations currently concerned by such systems. Particular attention needs to be paid to determining the respective usefulness of cross-breeding v. straight breeding strategies of well-adapted local breeds. While cross-breeding may offer some immediate benefits in terms of improving certain traits that enable the animals to adapt well to local environmental conditions, it may be difficult to sustain these benefits in the longer term and could also induce an important loss of genetic diversity if the initial pure-bred populations are no longer produced. As well as supporting the value of within-breed diversity, we must preserve between-breed diversity in order to maintain numerous options for adaptation to a variety of production environments and contexts. This may involve specific public policies to maintain and characterize local breeds (in terms of both phenotypes and genotypes), which could be used more effectively if they benefited from the scientific and technical resources currently available for more common breeds. Last but not least, public policies need to enable improved information concerning the genetic resources and breeding tools available for the agroecological management of livestock production systems, and facilitate its assimilation by farmers and farm technicians